In order to introduce the theory, a few basic explanations need to bo made.
First, how would we define ''events''? Considering the fact that everything primarly consists of atoms, we can think of events as atom movements. And what are those movements caused by? Of course, by movements of other atoms. If we had all possible information in a certain moment, we could calculate the movement of atoms in the next moment. Therefore, foresee a future event.
So it can be said that there is some kind of a chain of events. Every event is infact a consequence of a previous one, which is again a consequence of a previous one and so on. Also the events that are seemingly unrelated can be consequences of one another.
Therefore: Because we don't know all about atom movements, we can't exclude the possibility of future events being connected to our thoughts.
Let's start with an example:
You are at home by yourself, waiting for your brother. He said he'd be home until 10 a.m. and now it's already 10 past 11. You can't reach his cell phone. Of course, you are worried, so in your head you keep making up scary scripts of what might haven happened to him. Let's say, for example, you think: What if he got drunk, caused a car crashed and killed himself on that new dangerous crossroads?
Now if we ask ourselves, and let the answer be based especially on our own experience: What are the odds of the brother actually having the kind of accident we were afraid of? The possibility is minimal, of course, because that would be way to big of a conincidence. But if we hadn't thought about that exact same thing while worrying, this happening would not be a coincidence.
So the question is, are the possibilites of something happening minimized if we think about it/expect it?
Of course, this sounds unlikely to be true and we immediatly think of an argument to prove the theory wrong.
An appropriate example would be a football match between, say, Barcelona and Manchester. We expect Manchester to win, so would in that case the possibility of Barcelona winning increase ? That way, the winning team would simply be the one with less supporters, which is absurd.
This argument should be helpful to fully explain the theory, but we have to take a look at the whole thing from a mathematical view.
(For all explanations see below)
Example 1:
(worrying about your brother)
The number of possible outcomes: a=10^n (a very large number)
The probability of one of the outcomes: 1/a
The reduction of probability after we think of it: 1/a - x
Example 2:
(footbal match)
The number of possibly outcomes: 2
The probability of one of the outcomes: 1/2
The reduction of probability after we think of it: 1/2 - x
Explanations:
1. The number of possible outcomes is marked with the letter a. a, however, depends on the precision of the outcome description.
For example:
When we have a football match, we can have:
~two possible outcomes (like in our Example 2)
Manchester wins
or
Barcelona wins
~n possible outcomes
Manchester wins with a 3:2 result
or
Barcelona wins with a 3:2 result
or
Manchester wins with a 4: 0 result
or
Barcelona wins with a 2: 1 result
etc.
Adding further information (like the supporters thoughts on the loss/victory) increases the number of possibilities even more.
Also in example 1, the number of possible outcomes can be changed.
~two possible outcomes
Something happened to the brother
or
He's alright
2. In ''Probability of one of the outcomes'', other informations that could change the probability weren't considered.
For example:
Manchester is better prepared than Barcelona, which lessens the probability of Barcelona winning.
The brother never drinks, therefore the probability of him causing a car crash lessens.
3. x
x is the same in both examples.
x is the percent which tells us the reduction of a possibility of an outcome after we have thought of it.
This is the mathematical way of saying that it is almost impossible for our brother to have the accident we feared of:
1/a - x ≈ 0
This is a mathematical way of saying that if a is a very large number, x is a very small one:
1/10^n - x ≈0, x≈ 10^-n
Conclusion:
Therefore, the team's possibility of winning cannot really be reduced if we think of it (because x is such a small percent), especially considering the fact that everyone expects the victory of a team who has won before (is better), so it has better possibilities anyway.
It is believed that all events can be explained by this theory.
nedjelja, 26. srpnja 2009.
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